Netflix vs Paramount: The $108B Battle For Your Streaming Future

Heyy,

Happy Tuesday!!

Let me tell you about the week Hollywood forgot how capitalism works.

December 5, 2025. Netflix announces it's buying Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming assets for $82.7 billion.

The deal would give Netflix:

Ted Sarandos, Netflix co-CEO, called it "a rare opportunity."

Wall Street called it inevitable.

Then, 72 hours later, everything exploded.

December 8. Paramount Skydance launches a hostile takeover bid. 

$30 per share. All cash. 

$108.4 billion total. 

Not just for the studios and streaming - for the ENTIRE company, including CNN.

Backed by: Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Qatar Investment Authority, Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth, and Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners.

And President Trump was not just watching. He's deciding.

Peak season is here. Most retail and ecommerce teams face the same problem: volume spikes, but headcount doesn't.

Instead of hiring temporary staff or burning out your team, there’s a smarter move. Let AI handle the predictable stuff, like answering FAQs, routing tickets, and processing returns, so your people focus on what they do best: building loyalty.

Gladly’s ROI calculator shows exactly what this looks like for your business: how many tickets AI could resolve, how much that costs, and what that means for your bottom line. Real numbers. Your data.

See your savings

On December 5, 2025, Netflix announced a definitive agreement to acquire Warner Bros., including film/TV studios, HBO Max and HBO, for $27.75 per WBD share ($23.25 cash, $4.50 Netflix stock), with total enterprise value of $82.7 billion (equity value $72 billion).

Netflix is paying with:

What Netflix Gets:

What Netflix Says

"Our mission has always been to entertain the world," said Ted Sarandos. "By combining Warner Bros.' incredible library... with our culture-defining titles like Stranger Things and Squid Game, we'll be able to do that even better."

Netflix promises to maintain Warner Bros.' current operations "including theatrical releases" and expects $2-3 billion in annual cost savings.

The Problem

This was supposed to be the story. 

Clean deal. Done.

Except it wasn't.

The Hostile Counter-Attack by Paramount 

December 8, 2025: Paramount Skydance commenced an all-cash tender offer to acquire ALL outstanding shares of WBD for $30 per share.

The Numbers

Netflix's bid: Studio + streaming only (HBO Max). Cable networks (CNN, TNT, Discovery) get spun off separately.

Paramount's bid: EVERYTHING. The whole company, with all assets, including CNN.

Paramount argues it's offering shareholders "$17.6 billion more cash than the deal they currently have signed up with Netflix".

The Hostile Part

Paramount submitted six bids to WBD over 12 weeks. WBD rejected all of them. So Paramount went directly to shareholders, bypassing management entirely.

David Ellison (Paramount CEO): "WBD shareholders deserve an opportunity to consider our superior all-cash offer. We believe the WBD Board of Directors is pursuing an inferior proposal."

According to sources, WBD's board believed:

But there's another factor. A big one.

This is the messy part.

Paramount Side

Netflix Side

December 8: "I'll be involved in that decision too," Trump said about the Netflix-WBD deal. "It could be a problem" because of Netflix's market share.

When asked about Paramount's bid: "None of them are particularly great friends of mine. I have to see what percentage of market they have."

Trump said he was unaware of Kushner's involvement, though Kushner is his son-in-law.

But Behind The Scenes

David Ellison visited Trump at the White House, reportedly promising "sweeping changes to CNN" if Paramount wins.

Senator Elizabeth Warren: "This deal looks like an anti-monopoly nightmare. A Netflix-Warner Bros. would create one massive media giant with control of close to half of the streaming market - threatening to force Americans into higher subscription prices and fewer choices."

Senator Mike Lee (Republican): The Netflix-WBD tie-up would raise "more serious competition questions than any transaction I've seen in about a decade".

The Math

Paramount argues Netflix's deal "would entrench its monopoly with a 43% share of global Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) subscribers".

Netflix (#1) + HBO Max (#3/4) = Elimination of head-to-head competitor.

The Regulatory Gauntlet

DOJ reviews can take "anywhere from months to more than a year".

The Netflix-WBD acquisition faces: Statistical presumption of illegality based on HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) numbers indicating monopoly power, labor opposition from writers/actors guilds, vertical foreclosure risks, political hostility from both parties.

National security concerns could play a role in Paramount's acquisition since its offer is backed by funding from Abu Dhabi, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States) reviews transactions involving foreign investment and determines security risks.

BUT: Paramount says these investors "have agreed to forgo any governance rights - including board representation - associated with their non-voting equity investments," arguing the deal "will not be within CFIUS's jurisdiction".

The Likely Outcome

Regulators may not block the deal entirely but could require conditions: Netflix promising theatrical releases won't decline, sharing Warner Bros. library with other streamers/theaters, or divesting some assets.

---

Subscription Costs:

Content Availability:

Competition Impact:

Content Diversity:

Subscription Costs:

Content Availability:

The CNN Factor:

Foreign Influence:

Democratic Reps: "These investors [Saudi, Qatar, Abu Dhabi funds], by virtue of their financial position, could obtain influence (direct or indirect) over editorial independence, content moderation, distribution priorities"

Competition Impact:

---

Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon: "The bidding war for WBD's streaming and studio assets reflects the economic reality of the 2025 media environment that mid-sized legacy media studios/companies can no longer compete with the unit economics of Netflix or the ecosystem of large tech players, such as Amazon".

Netflix's advantages:

- 300M+ subscribers = scale economics on content costs

- $17B+ annual content budget

- Algorithm-driven content optimization

- Global distribution infrastructure

- No legacy cable business dragging down margins

Warner Bros. Discovery's problems:

- Massive debt from AT&T merger (2018) then Discovery merger (2022)

- Declining cable revenue (CNN, TNT losing subscribers)

- Can't match Netflix/Amazon content spending

- HBO Max subscriber growth plateaued

June 2025: WBD announced plans to separate into two companies - Streaming & Studios and Global Linear Networks. 

October 2025: WBD announced it would "consider a broad range of alternative options".

Translation: We can't compete. Someone buy us.

The Consolidation Wave

- Disney bought 21st Century Fox ($71B, 2019)

- AT&T bought Time Warner ($100B+, 2018)

- Discovery merged with WarnerMedia (2022)

- Paramount-Skydance merged ($8B, 2024)

- Now: Netflix or Paramount buying what's left

Five years ago: 8-10 major studios/streamers

Today: Consolidating to 3-4

---

The Warner Bros. bidding war isn't about which deal is "better."

It's about who controls the narrative in American entertainment, and who gets to decide.

If Netflix wins:

You get convenience (one mega-service), but:

- Market concentration reaches monopoly levels

- Regulatory agencies gain unprecedented content control

- Theatrical experience further diminishes

- Indie creators lose leverage (fewer buyers)

If Paramount wins:

You get theatrical commitment, but:

- Trump-aligned ownership of major news outlets (CNN, CBS)

- Middle Eastern sovereign wealth influence in American media

- Still massive consolidation (just different configuration)

The truth is that neither deal should probably happen. But one of them will.

Because the alternative (Warner Bros. surviving independently) isn't economically viable anymore.

The streaming wars killed the middle class of entertainment companies.

Now we're just deciding which tech giant or politically-connected conglomerate gets to own the corpse.

What Happens Next:

- WBD has 10 business days to respond to Paramount's hostile bid

- Paramount's tender offer expires January 8, 2026 unless extended

- Whichever deal wins faces 12-18 months of regulatory review

- Trump will likely tip the scales

The audience loses either way.

We just get to watch which billionaire wins.

---

You want to talk about media consolidation?

In 1938, Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster sold the rights to Superman to Detective Comics (later DC Comics) for $130.

Not $130 million. Not $130 thousand.

One hundred and thirty dollars.

That character has generated over $20 billion in revenue across 85+ years.

Siegel and Shuster spent decades fighting for recognition and royalties, eventually getting a small pension and "created by" credit in the 1970s.

Current Value of Action Comics #1:

Only about 100 copies exist. Original print run: 200,000.

---

About Leeds1888: We share insider insights on entertainment economics, startup realities, web3 developments, and building businesses. Weekly deep dives featuring deal breakdowns, founder stories, market observations, and frameworks that matter.

For collaboration: [email protected]